“United States potentially reaches the quarterfinals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup [as host nation].”
United States reached the round of 16 but did not reach the quarterfinals.
Brier Index
38.3 → 48.5 (+10.3)
Raw Brier
0.381 → 0.265
Overall rank
23 → 19
Prediction by Beth Lindop in ESPN article published 2026-06-10. High-visibility major English outlet; optimistic host deep-run claim.
The United States reaches the quarterfinal stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, as determined by the official FIFA knockout bracket published after the round of 16.
This resolution was performed by human examination of primary sources against the exact wording of the resolution criteria. The resolver (Tonnis Sebo Anko Douma) takes personal responsibility for the recorded outcome. Full methodological rules are published in the project’s METHODOLOGY.md.
| Published | 10 June 2026 |
| Logged | 11 June 2026 |
| Resolved | 5 July 2026 |
| Stated probability | 18% |
| Brier contribution | 0.032 |
| Brier Index (this prediction) | 82.0 |
| Prediction id | pred-2026-06-10-lindop-usmnt-qf |
| Topic |
United States Performance Quarterfinals
|