“Netherlands will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup [hosted in USA/Canada/Mexico, defeating Portugal in the final after beating Spain in the semifinals per Klement model].”
Netherlands did not win the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Spain were the champions.
Brier Index
67.3 → 69.2 (+1.9)
Raw Brier
0.107 → 0.095
Overall rank
14 → 14
Model-based forecast by economist Joachim Klement (correctly predicted 2014/2018/2022 winners) as reported in ESPN article by Adriana Garcia. Published 2026-06-04. High-visibility due to author's documented track record and non-consensus winner claim.
Netherlands is declared the winner of the 2026 FIFA World Cup by the official FIFA final match result on or before 2026-07-19.
This resolution was performed by human examination of primary sources against the exact wording of the resolution criteria. The resolver (Tonnis Sebo Anko Douma) takes personal responsibility for the recorded outcome. Full methodological rules are published in the project’s METHODOLOGY.md.
| Published | 4 June 2026 |
| Logged | 11 June 2026 |
| Resolved | 19 July 2026 |
| Stated probability | 15% |
| Brier contribution | 0.022 |
| Brier Index (this prediction) | 85.0 |
| Prediction id | pred-2026-06-04-klement-nl-winner-path |
| Topic |
Winner
|