“Netherlands defeats Spain in the semifinals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup [hosted in USA/Canada/Mexico].”
Netherlands did not reach the semifinals and therefore did not play Spain in a semifinal match.
Brier Index
68.7 → 69.2 (+0.4)
Raw Brier
0.098 → 0.095
Overall rank
14 → 14
Model-based forecast by economist Joachim Klement (correctly predicted 2014/2018/2022 winners) as reported in ESPN article by Adriana Garcia. Published 2026-06-04. High-visibility due to author's documented track record.
Netherlands defeats Spain in one of the two 2026 FIFA World Cup semifinal matches, according to the official FIFA results published after the semifinals.
This resolution was performed by human examination of primary sources against the exact wording of the resolution criteria. The resolver (Tonnis Sebo Anko Douma) takes personal responsibility for the recorded outcome. Full methodological rules are published in the project’s METHODOLOGY.md.
| Published | 4 June 2026 |
| Logged | 11 June 2026 |
| Resolved | 11 July 2026 |
| Stated probability | 28% |
| Brier contribution | 0.078 |
| Brier Index (this prediction) | 72.0 |
| Prediction id | pred-2026-06-04-klement-nl-spain-sf |
| Topic |
Spain Performance Semifinals
|