“Netherlands reaches quarter-finals or better”

Original source

Netherlands reached the Round of 32 but were eliminated by Morocco on penalties and did not reach the quarterfinals.

Primary evidence source

Impact on track record
FALSE

Brier Index

— → 35.0 (—)

Raw Brier

— → 0.423

Overall rank

— → 26

Statement context

Public prediction by Bas van den Hoven published on Voetbal International. Expects Netherlands to reach at least the quarterfinals.

Resolution criteria

Netherlands reaches at least the quarterfinal stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, as determined by the official FIFA knockout bracket.

Verification

This resolution was performed by human examination of primary sources against the exact wording of the resolution criteria. The resolver (Tonnis Sebo Anko Douma) takes personal responsibility for the recorded outcome. Full methodological rules are published in the project’s METHODOLOGY.md.

Claim details
Published 1 June 2026
Resolved 5 July 2026
Stated probability 65%
Brier contribution 0.423
Brier Index (this prediction) 35.0
Prediction id pred-2026-06-01-vandenhoven-nl-qf
Topic
Netherlands Performance Quarterfinals