“Netherlands wins 2026 World Cup, defeats Portugal in final”
Netherlands did not win the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Spain were the champions.
Brier Index
67.1 → 69.2 (+2.1)
Raw Brier
0.108 → 0.095
Overall rank
14 → 14
Public prediction by German mathematician and forecaster Joachim Klement. Strong claim that Netherlands wins the tournament.
Netherlands is declared the winner of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, as determined by the official FIFA final match result.
This resolution was performed by human examination of primary sources against the exact wording of the resolution criteria. The resolver (Tonnis Sebo Anko Douma) takes personal responsibility for the recorded outcome. Full methodological rules are published in the project’s METHODOLOGY.md.
| Published | 25 May 2026 |
| Resolved | 19 July 2026 |
| Stated probability | 12% |
| Brier contribution | 0.014 |
| Brier Index (this prediction) | 88.0 |
| Prediction id | pred-2026-05-25-klement-nl-winner |
| Topic |
Winner
|