“Netherlands tops Group F and reaches at least quarter-finals”
Netherlands reached the round of 16 but did not advance to the quarterfinals (lost to Morocco in round of 32), per official FIFA knockout bracket.
Brier Index
76.6 → 69.2 (-7.4)
Raw Brier
0.055 → 0.095
Overall rank
10 → 14
Public prediction by Joachim Klement. Expects Netherlands to win Group F and progress deep into the knockout stage.
Netherlands finishes first in Group F and reaches at least the quarterfinals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
This resolution was performed by human examination of primary sources against the exact wording of the resolution criteria. The resolver (Tonnis Sebo Anko Douma) takes personal responsibility for the recorded outcome. Full methodological rules are published in the project’s METHODOLOGY.md.
| Published | 25 May 2026 |
| Resolved | 5 July 2026 |
| Stated probability | 58% |
| Brier contribution | 0.336 |
| Brier Index (this prediction) | 42.0 |
| Prediction id | pred-2026-05-25-klement-nl-group-qf |
| Topic |
Netherlands Performance Group Stage
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